FX Rumors does not originate rumors. We track claims that the sources listed below have already published, and every claim carries a source, a tier, a confidence score and a date. Nothing is presented as fact until Sony confirms it. Here is how the scoring works.
The FX-Meter (1 to 5)
Each rumor and each individual spec claim gets a score, always shown with its word, never color alone:
- 5, Confirmed: official Sony, or a Tier 1 filing that directly establishes the fact.
- 4, Very likely: a strong Tier 1 signal, or multiple independent Tier 2 sources with strong records agreeing.
- 3, Plausible: two independent Tier 2 sources, or one strong Tier 2 source with a high record.
- 2, Speculative: a single Tier 2 source, or consistent Tier 3 chatter.
- 1, Unverified: a single Tier 3 source, or early, contested reporting.
Source tiers
- Tier 1, primary and verifiable: official Sony channels, regulatory and certification filings, and registration leaks with a strong track record. Only Tier 1 or official can reach a 5.
- Tier 2, established track record: outlets with a multi-year history of careful, attributed reporting. Reportable with attribution; never presented as confirmed. Caps at 4.
- Tier 3, single source or unproven: forums, new accounts, one-off tips. Labeled “unverified, single source” and capped at 2.
A claim can never exceed the cap of its best supporting tier. More independent corroboration raises the score within that cap; a contradiction from an equal or higher tier lowers it immediately. Two outlets citing the same tipster count as one source, not two.
How the number is computed
The score is not a vibe, and it is not a black box either, so here is exactly how it works. Claims published through our ingestion pipeline are scored by a fixed, unit-tested procedure: the same evidence always produces the same number. The scores on the launch tracker were set editorially, by hand, applying the same rules and held within the same tier caps; as the pipeline re-scores each claim on new evidence, the computed number takes over. The procedure:
- 1. Ceiling from the best source. The most authoritative tier backing a claim sets the maximum: Tier 1 up to 5, Tier 2 up to 4, Tier 3 up to 2. A claim can never score above its best source’s ceiling.
- 2. Corroboration. We count independent sources, collapsing outlets that trace to one original tipster into a single source. One source sits low in the band; two independent Tier 2 outlets with good records agreeing can reach 4; an official Sony confirmation or an establishing Tier 1 filing reaches 5.
- 3. Contradiction. A credible source at or above the claim’s best supporting tier disputing it drops the score a point at once. A retraction counts too: the origin outlet walking its own claim back is recorded as a contradiction at that outlet’s tier, and it stays on the claim, so later reposts can never quietly lift the score back up.
- 4. Decay. When a claim comes up for re-scoring and its evidence is more than 45 days old, it loses a point. Decay applies at re-evaluation, not on a clock: a quiet rumor keeps its last score, with its “last verified” date visible, until new evidence makes us look at it again.
- 5. The percentage. The bar’s % is a finer reading kept inside the score’s band (1: under 20%, 2: 20–39, 3: 40–59, 4: 60–79, 5: 80–100), so the bar and the number can never disagree.
Worked example. The FX5 “global shutter” claim sits at 1 / 5. Established outlets carry it, which would normally support more, but every one of them traces back to the single outlet that broke it, and that outlet walked the claim back within a week. The engine computes the score exactly that way: one independent Tier 2 voice is Speculative (2), and the recorded retraction is a contradiction at the origin’s own tier, which drops it a point to Unverified (1). The origin withdrawing a claim is stronger evidence against it than any number of reposts is for it.
Recency
Every claim shows a “last verified” date, so you can see how old its evidence is. A stale claim loses a point when it next comes up for re-scoring (see Decay above).
The accuracy ledger
When Sony announces or a higher tier resolves a rumor, we mark each claim true or false in public, update the tracker in place, and credit or debit the sources that made the call: the outlet that originated the claim and any outlet that confirmed it independently. Outlets that merely repeated the story stay linked as coverage but are not scored on it; repeating a call is not making one. The public hit-and-miss record is what makes “only sources with a track record” a measurable rule rather than a slogan.
Buy or wait
The buy‑or‑wait verdict on each camera follows a fixed rubric, not a hunch, and it is tied to the same scored rumors, so it can move on its own as a successor’s odds change:
- Incoming: the camera itself is the upcoming, still‑rumored body.
- Wait: a shipping body whose successor is rumored at Plausible (3/5) or higher and is expected soon.
- Buy now: a shipping body with no imminent successor that is still current: a recent release, strong value, or ongoing firmware support.
- Watch: a mature shipping body, past its usual refresh, with only faint, low‑confidence successor chatter.
Because the “Wait” trigger reads the successor’s tracked release score, a verdict can flip by itself: if a successor rumor strengthens past 3/5, the current body moves to “Wait”; if it fades, the body returns to “Buy now”. Each verdict still carries a one‑line, plain‑English reason.
Sources we track
Who we watch, how we tier them, and why. Tier 1 is primary, verifiable evidence and is not scored. The document or filing is the source; whoever surfaces it is a tracked messenger at their own tier. Tier 2 and Tier 3 earn a public record on the ledger as their calls resolve; we show no accuracy figure until there is a real sample behind it.
- Sony official: Tier 1. Official Sony channels: the fact itself.
- Certification filing: Tier 1. Regulatory and certification filings (FCC, Bluetooth SIG, Wi-Fi Alliance). Proof a body exists and is imminent, not its detailed specs.
- RedShark News: Tier 2. Tracked source.
- CineD: Tier 2. Original cinema-camera reporting and lab testing.
- Newsshooter: Tier 2. Working-pro hands-on coverage.
- Y.M.Cinema: Tier 2. Cinema-camera analysis and informed reasoning.
- Digital Camera World: Tier 2. Mainstream outlet that often aggregates; treated as an echo unless it adds original reporting.
- Imaging Resource: Tier 2. Tracked source.
- SonyAlphaRumors: Tier 2. Long-running Sony rumor blog and the origin of most FX5 reporting; earns its public record as the claims we track from it resolve.
- Forums and social: Tier 3. Community signal: unverified, single-source, capped at Speculative.
- Daily Camera News: Tier 3. Tracked source.
- NewCamera: Tier 3. Tracked source.